A | 　　随着全球农业供应链深处多重风险加速交织，华尔街投行近期正接二连三地发出重磅预警：一场跨度更长、波及更广的全球粮食危机风险已然悄然积聚，并即将迎来彻底爆发的“风暴时刻”。 The fundraising campaign for a statue of Freya the walrus, who has been put down after becoming the local media's poster child and a fixture in several Norwegian marinas, has passed NOK 200,000 ($20,500) in a matter of several days, national broadcaster NRK reported.,According to the man behind the project, the statue should serve as a reminder of humanity's selfishness.,By his own admission, Erik Holm was “annoyed” by the decision to euthanize the beloved trespasser over security concerns, and thought it was too easy a solution.,“Then I thought no, let's make a statue to honor her and remind us how selfish we humans are, both who made this decision, and people who failed to follow warnings not to approach her too closely and bother her,” Holm told NRK.,Admittedly, Holm received a lot of positive feedback after he had started fundraising, but he also said that he received a handful of negative comments.,“It is mostly from 'whatabouters' who may not have fully understood why would you do something like this or think you should spend your money on something else,” Holm explained.,According to Holm, the statue should stand in Bærum in Greater Oslo, where Freya the walrus was spotted until recently.,The idea has been hailed by the environmental organization Greenpeace.,“The degradation of nature and climate change are extremely serious for all life on Earth. We humans have to realize that we have to show more respect for nature, and the focus on Freya is one of many things that can hopefully contribute to that,” Frode Pleym, head of Greenpeace Norway, told NRK.,ViralNo Happy Ending: Iconic Walrus Freya Euthanized in Norway14 August, 11:07 GMT,Sculptor Merete Sejersted Bødtker, who made the statue of skiing legend Ingrid Wigernæs and is slated to make the statue of Norway's first female bishop, Rosemarie Köhn (with both projects based on fundraising),called it a “fantastic” idea. At the same time, she stressed that the sum will have to be multiplied four of five times. The 600-kilogram Freya was euthanized last week, because the authorities ruled that human life and health could be in danger. In the weeks prior, she had become a tourist attractions of sorts and a selfie magnet, which prompted warnings from the authorities. The killing stirred strong reactions worldwide, to the point of those responsible for the decision receiving death threats.。　　上周，摩根大通分析师已发出了“明年或爆发全球粮食危机”的警示。而汇丰银行分析师在本周二的最新报告中亦敲响警钟，指出谷物供应趋紧、厄尔尼诺现象、海上航运要道受阻，以及由此引发的供应挤压，正推高谷物价格。　　汇丰银行主攻澳新地区及全球大宗商品的经济学家Jamie Culling在周二发布的研报《天气与战争推高食品价格》中指出，这种供应挤压已在现货市场显现。截至7月，涵盖小麦、玉米、大麦和稻米在内的谷物整体价格同比上涨了22%。　　“今年年初充足的供应和库存曾有助于抑制价格飙升，但这一缓冲现在正开始迅速耗尽，”Culling向客户发出警告。　　农业供应链面临多重冲击　　Culling指出，农业供应链正面临多重冲击，包括中东冲突的影响、近期俄乌战争的升级，以及极端天气事件——如北半球热浪和日益加剧的厄尔尼诺现象。　　根据美国农业部(USDA)的最新预测，2026/27年度全球谷物产量预计将跌至低于消费量，这将是自2020/21年度以来的首次供需倒挂，也是自2006/07年度以来最大规模的供给缺口。　　随着作物单产下降，库销比正面临进一步收紧。

B | 　　农产品价格已出现上涨。

C | 谷物价格同比上涨22%，而可可和咖啡等部分“高档食品”的价格也大幅飙升。　　中东冲突已成为农产品市场的主要扰动因素。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续制约着化肥和硫磺的供应，导致前端生产成本居高不下；而部分国家为应对供应紧张而实施的出口限制，进一步加剧了市场压力。　　俄乌冲突近期的升级则导致黑海航线的出货量骤降。该地区承担着全球近三分之一的小麦出口量和五分之一的化肥贸易量，在谷物收割正全面展开的关键节点，这构成了重大供应链隐患。此外，俄罗斯本土炼油厂受损也间接推高了柴油等能源成本。　　天气因素同样构成了巨大威胁：北半球热浪、日益加剧的厄尔尼诺现象以及印度洋偶极子(IOD)呈正相位，都给农产品供应带来了下行风险。尽管历次厄尔尼诺对不同区域和作物的具体影响不尽相同，但普遍规律是导致作物减产、农价上浮。　　受天气相关风险影响，可可价格在过去几个月已飙升了50%，咖啡价格也随之上涨。天气风险还可能引发非线性连锁反应，例如更多病虫害疫情爆发。　　汇丰最后总结称，供给侧的剧烈波动，将继续主导农产品的价格走势。